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Strategy - Scenario Planning 

   

 

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20 April 2012
 
 
 

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Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight Scenarios, as a prime technique of future studies, have long been used by government planners, corporate managers and military analysts as powerful tools to aid in decision making in the face of uncertainty. The idea behind them is to establish thinking about possible futures which can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managersí thinking about different possibilities. 2005  
Analyzing Environments and Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Times This article describes and illustrates a three-pronged environmental analysis effort to obtain strategic intelligence: scanning, monitoring, and scenarios  
Enhancing inductive strategizing through sensemaking and scenario thinking This paper provides a theoretical examination of the roles of sensemaking and scenario thinking in enhancing inductive strategizing. The use of scenarios integrates uncertainty and ambiguity into the strategic conversation.  
From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action This article discusses how to strengthen the connection between scenario development and strategic action: barriers to implementation, dealing with the dilemma, what not to do, what to do  
How to build scenarios A growing number of corporate executives are using scenario planning to make big, hard decisions more effectively.   
Linking Scenarios to Corporate Planning Over the last fifty years, scenarios have become part of the toolbox of strategists and planners. This paper discusses in detail the links between scenarios and strategy development, strategy evaluation, and Sensitivity/Risk Assessment.  
Scenario Development using Computerised Morphological Analysis Morphological analysis (MA) is a non-quantified modelling method for structuring and analysing technical, organisational and social problem complexes. It is well suited for developing scenarios, and the method is highly appropriate for complex cases where expertise from several areas is required.   
Scenario Planning Approach to Strategic Management of Small Travel Business in Malaysia This paper introduces scenario planning in the way the turbulent world should be better managed by looking for possible futures and not predicting the only future. 2005  
Spinning the Future An introducory article on scenarios  
The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls The term strategy has been misused and even abused. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clarification is needed if we are to understand one another.   
The Man Who Saw the Future As the pace of change in business accelerates, the legacy of Pierre Wack, the father of scenario planning, is more relevant than ever. 2003  
The right strategy at the right time for emerging markets A new GLOBAL TOPICS brochure in the "8 Billion Opportunities" series looks at how a scenario planning tool works in emerging markets.   

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Literature

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Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy
by Mats Lindgren, Hans Bandhold
Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool.

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
by Jeroen van der Veer (Editor)
For over 30 years, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group has used these scenarios to identify business risks and opportunities in ways forecasts cannot. Now for the first time these scenerios are available to the public. This book portrays three plausible futures with contrasting economic, political, and regulatory features and distinct implications for the energy system.

Learning from the Future : Competitive Foresight Scenarios
by Liam Fahey (Editor), Robert M. Randall (Editor)
This book makes preparing for unpredictable futures a practical part of every managerís job. It shows how scenario learning readies companies for industry and market evolutions and customersí new needs. Scenario learning envisions how industry segments may gain or lose profit potential, how certain technologies could dominate a market or fail to be accepted, how new trends could propel mass markets, what circumstances could derail a merger. This new foresight methodology is a critical source of business advantage. To help readers construct truly useful scenarios and learn from them, this book offers the latest insights of 25 internationally known scenario developers. Their case studies explore rapid technology innovation, regulatory destabilization, actions by new or traditional competitors, and investment opportunities.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
by Kees van der Heijden
Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.

Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future
by Gill Ringland

 

     

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