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Analyzing Environments and Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Times	This article describes and illustrates a three-pronged environmental analysis effort to obtain strategic intelligence: scanning, monitoring, and scenarios
Enhancing inductive strategizing through sensemaking and scenario thinking	This paper provides a theoretical examination of the roles of sensemaking and scenario thinking in enhancing inductive strategizing. The use of scenarios integrates uncertainty and ambiguity into the strategic conversation. Drawing insights from previous scholarship, the author argues that by refocusing scenarios from seeking to influence managers’ decision making to enabling sensemaking during inductive strategizing, wise organisations can prepare themselves for what futures are created. pdf
From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action	This article discusses how to strengthen the connection between scenario development and strategic action: barriers to implementation, dealing with the dilemma, what not to do, what to do
How corporations learn from scenarios	Few frameworks of analysis are so ideally suited to link the strategy and knowledge challenges as scenarios.
How to build scenarios
It's a Scary (But Resilient) World	The authors explain how a dynamic planning process incorporating various scenarios helps leaders adapt their operations to the vagaries of today’s global environment. Pdf-file 2004
Linking Scenarios to Corporate Planning	Over the last fifty years, scenarios have become part of the toolbox of strategists and planners. This paper discusses in detail the links between scenarios and strategy development, strategy evaluation, and Sensitivity/Risk Assessment.
Scenario Development	... and the New Business Landscape. Slide show in pdf-format
Scenario Development using Computerised Morphological Analysis	Morphological analysis (MA) is a non-quantified modelling method for structuring and analysing technical, organisational and social problem complexes. It is well suited for developing scenarios, and the method is highly appropriate for complex cases where expertise from several areas is required.
Scenario planning basics for distributors	This article provides a brief introduction to scenario planning for distributors and shows you how to use this valuable tool in your own company.
Scenario Planning to Define a Public Real Estate Strategy	The paper describes how scenario planning has been used in a research project that was aimed at defi ning a public real estate strategy in four different countries. Besides a description of the method the authors discusses its usefulness in the policymaking process. pdf
Scenario Planning: An Innovative Approach to Strategy Development	Integrating a futures approach into traditional strategic planning models in order to develop a foresight capacity requires not only an understanding of what a futures approach is - as opposed to only using a methodology like scenario planning - but also a fundamental reconceptualisation of the strategic planning model itself.
Scenario Planning: An Innovative Approach to Strategy Development	Integrating a futures approach into traditional strategic planning models in order to develop a foresight capacity requires not only an understanding of what a futures approach is - as opposed to only using a methodology like scenario planning - but also a fundamental reconceptualisation of the strategic planning model itself.
Scenarios and Strategy  - divide and conquer	This article is a brief note on scenario planning and a simple twist that helps to improve the return on investment – keep the story separate from the strategy.
Spinning the Future	An introducory article on scenarios
The Man Who Saw the Future	As the pace of change in business accelerates, the legacy of Pierre Wack, the father of scenario planning, is more relevant than ever. 2003

Related Information
Knowledgebase - Strategy - Strategic Planning

All literature recommendations:
>> themanager.org-Strategy-Bookstore
>> Strategic Planning >> Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy
by Mats Lindgren, Hans Bandhold
Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool.

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
by Jeroen van der Veer (Editor)
For over 30 years, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group has used these scenarios to identify business risks and opportunities in ways forecasts cannot. Now for the first time these scenerios are available to the public. This book portrays three plausible futures with contrasting economic, political, and regulatory features and distinct implications for the energy system.

Learning from the Future : Competitive Foresight Scenarios
by Liam Fahey (Editor), Robert M. Randall (Editor)
This book makes preparing for unpredictable futures a practical part of every manager’s job. It shows how scenario learning readies companies for industry and market evolutions and customers’ new needs. Scenario learning envisions how industry segments may gain or lose profit potential, how certain technologies could dominate a market or fail to be accepted, how new trends could propel mass markets, what circumstances could derail a merger. This new foresight methodology is a critical source of business advantage. To help readers construct truly useful scenarios and learn from them, this book offers the latest insights of 25 internationally known scenario developers. Their case studies explore rapid technology innovation, regulatory destabilization, actions by new or traditional competitors, and investment opportunities.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
by Kees van der Heijden
Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.

Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future
by Gill Ringland