In the absence of a crystal ball, thinking systemically
and strategically about a variety of potential outcomes
can provide greater clarity and free organisations from
the constraints of their own biases, wishful thinking,
and assumptions about the future. Scenario planning is a
rigorous methodology that has been used by many of the
world’s leading corporations to do just that. By
exploring a divergent set of challenging, yet plausible
scenarios (narratives about the future), companies can
develop more robust and flexible strategies, make better
decisions, pursue new directions, and adapt and grow in
a rapidly changing world.
Given the accelerating rate and breadth of change, the
world is likely to become even more unpredictable,
volatile and complex in the years ahead. Executives will
therefore need to become even more adept at making
decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Scenario
planning can help executives overcome two major
obstacles to such decision-making: denial and paralysis.
2008
