Scenarios, as a prime technique of future studies, have
long been used by government planners, corporate
managers and military analysts as powerful tools to aid
in decision making in the face of uncertainty. The idea
behind them is to establish thinking about possible
futures which can minimise surprises and broaden the
span of managers’ thinking about different
possibilities. Today the question of what scenarios are
is unclear except with regard to one point - they have
become extremely popular. This paper attempts to shed
light on differences in scenario approaches. It will
describe the origin of scenarios and the development of
different understandings and purposes for managers.
Categories are developed to compare the different ways
scenarios are performed. Finally, the advantages and
disadvantages of scenario approaches are analysed. pdf
2005
