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Futurist’s Toolbox - Methodologies in Futures Work |
People have always wanted to get a preview, an early glimpse, of
what the future holds. All of us – individuals, organisations,
corporations, authorities or ministries – make plans and anticipate
the future in our daily lives. In that sense we are all ‘futurists’.
This report first looks briefly at the purpose, principles and
approaches to futures work. It then turns to a summary of the key
methodologies and their relative strengths and weaknesses. pdf |
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Anticipating the Future |
Describes the outcomes of a workshop that can serve as a model that
you can use in your organization to anticipate the future and use
the information generated by the model to shape your future. |
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Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods |
Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting
Methods. Pdf-file |
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Economic Forecasting |
How pros predict the future. Varied forms of analysis can chart the
course for your organization. |
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Famous Forecasting Quotes |
... together with some comments about the truth that is in there |
TOP |
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Flops |
Famous and unknown flops in forecasting |
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Flops II |
CIO Magazine looks at some of their former predictions that went
awry. |
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Forecasting FAQs |
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Forecasting for Marketing |
The authors review research on forecasting in order to provide
guidelines for forecasting for marketing. Pdf-file |
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Forecasting Methodology Tree |
One-page flow chart that describes all judgmental and quantitative
methods and how they relate to one another. Pdf-file 6 KB |
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Future of man, woman & Machine |
A Future of Man, Woman & Machine: Peter Cochrane, Spring 2000 |
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Future Scanning: How Far Can You Look? |
It's crucial to look ahead to avoid being blindsided. But how far
can you see? Too close and you'll be overwhelmed by events. Too far
and the future will be murky. Here are suggestions for optimum
timelines and methodologies for scanning your world. |
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Germany 2020 - New challenges for a land on expedition |
Germany faces historic economic, social and political decisions. To
make the right decisions we first need to have consistent pictures
of the future. We have therefore set out to sketch what paths of
development are conceivable for German business and society in the
future based on an innovative scenario analysis – and which picture
of the future is the most plausible. pdf. 2007 |
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How
to integrate management judgment with statistical forecasts |
Many of us make judgemental adjustments to statistical forecasts.
But do these improve Accuracy? |
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Is
Forecasting a Waste of Time? |
It’s time for companies to stop wasting their time and money and
start eliminating forecasting activities that fail to add value. |
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Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy |
Seeing the future as a psychological landscape clarifies the
elements of strategy, provides insights into key areas of strategic
thinking, and helps develop the strategic conviction essential for
visionary leadership. pdf |
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Quotes |
Nothing scientific, but if you need a quote about the future - there
is a great variety |
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Research Needs in Forecasting |
Describes principles of forecasting that are in need of research.
Pdf-file |
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Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? |
In the future, competitions should start with hypotheses as to which
methods will be most effective under what conditions. In addition,
they should allow for the use of domain knowledge. Pdf-file |
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Spain 2020 - The success story continues |
Spain’s economic success over the past years has been most
impressive – raising concerns about its sustainability. An analysis
of the roots of the success is a prerequisite for assessing the
likelihood of an unpleasant correction. Pdf. 2007 |
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The
demographic challenge |
An overview of the population problem and its consequences for
society and the economy. A study from Deutsche Bank Research about
demographic developments and their social and economical
implications. pdf. 2002 |
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The
Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy |
In this paper, Scott Armstrong offers recommendations on how to
structure a forecasting problem, how to tap managers’ knowledge, and
how to select appropriate forecasting methods. |
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The
Future is No Place for Sissies! |
Eight “Super-Trends” You Must Master to Survive in Business. This
discussion presents a snapshot of eight important strategic trends
expected to prevail over the coming 5-10 years. pdf |
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The
Future Project |
This site invites internet users to imagine the world a hundred
years hence. You can see what people have already forecast as well
as add you own. |
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The
Great Eight: Trillion-Dollar Growth Trends to 2021 |
Eight macro trends are at work in the global economy. Their growth
potential will touch many corners of the globe |
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The
Return of Forecasts |
Fundamental Change Raises Interest |
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Trend Map by Deutsche Bank Research |
This trend map currently covers 21 trends which will have a major
influence on the global economy in the next two decades. The map
shows the condensed outcome of an iterative, broad-based search and
evaluation process. |
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UK
in the first decade of the 00's |
Peace and Plenty: The Defining Feature of the UK in the First Decade
of the '00s: Jim Murphy of Model Reasoning, Spring 2000 |
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World Future Society |
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