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Strategy - Forecasting 

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." 

Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics


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27 December 2006

A Futurist’s Toolbox - Methodologies in Futures Work People have always wanted to get a preview, an early glimpse, of what the future holds. All of us – individuals, organisations, corporations, authorities or ministries – make plans and anticipate the future in our daily lives. In that sense we are all ‘futurists’. This report first looks briefly at the purpose, principles and approaches to futures work. It then turns to a summary of the key methodologies and their relative strengths and weaknesses. pdf  
Anticipating the Future Describes the outcomes of a workshop that can serve as a model that you can use in your organization to anticipate the future and use the information generated by the model to shape your future.  
Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods. Pdf-file  
Economic Forecasting How pros predict the future. Varied forms of analysis can chart the course for your organization.  
Famous Forecasting Quotes ... together with some comments about the truth that is in there TOP
Flops Famous and unknown flops in forecasting  
Flops II CIO Magazine looks at some of their former predictions that went awry.   
Forecasting FAQs    
Forecasting for Marketing The authors review research on forecasting in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. Pdf-file  
Forecasting Methodology Tree One-page flow chart that describes all judgmental and quantitative methods and how they relate to one another. Pdf-file 6 KB  
Future of man, woman & Machine A Future of Man, Woman & Machine: Peter Cochrane, Spring 2000  
Future Scanning: How Far Can You Look? It's crucial to look ahead to avoid being blindsided. But how far can you see? Too close and you'll be overwhelmed by events. Too far and the future will be murky. Here are suggestions for optimum timelines and methodologies for scanning your world.  
Germany 2020 - New challenges for a land on expedition Germany faces historic economic, social and political decisions. To make the right decisions we first need to have consistent pictures of the future. We have therefore set out to sketch what paths of development are conceivable for German business and society in the future based on an innovative scenario analysis – and which picture of the future is the most plausible. pdf. 2007  
How to integrate management judgment with statistical forecasts Many of us make judgemental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve Accuracy?   
Is Forecasting a Waste of Time? It’s time for companies to stop wasting their time and money and start eliminating forecasting activities that fail to add value.   
Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy Seeing the future as a psychological landscape clarifies the elements of strategy, provides insights into key areas of strategic thinking, and helps develop the strategic conviction essential for visionary leadership. pdf  
Quotes Nothing scientific, but if you need a quote about the future - there is a great variety  
Research Needs in Forecasting Describes principles of forecasting that are in need of research. Pdf-file  
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? In the future, competitions should start with hypotheses as to which methods will be most effective under what conditions. In addition, they should allow for the use of domain knowledge. Pdf-file  
Spain 2020 - The success story continues Spain’s economic success over the past years has been most impressive – raising concerns about its sustainability. An analysis of the roots of the success is a prerequisite for assessing the likelihood of an unpleasant correction. Pdf. 2007  
The demographic challenge An overview of the population problem and its consequences for society and the economy. A study from Deutsche Bank Research about demographic developments and their social and economical implications. pdf. 2002   
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy In this paper, Scott Armstrong offers recommendations on how to structure a forecasting problem, how to tap managers’ knowledge, and how to select appropriate forecasting methods.   
The Future is No Place for Sissies! Eight “Super-Trends” You Must Master to Survive in Business. This discussion presents a snapshot of eight important strategic trends expected to prevail over the coming 5-10 years. pdf  
The Future Project This site invites internet users to imagine the world a hundred years hence. You can see what people have already forecast as well as add you own.   
The Great Eight: Trillion-Dollar Growth Trends to 2021 Eight macro trends are at work in the global economy. Their growth potential will touch many corners of the globe  
The Return of Forecasts  Fundamental Change Raises Interest  
Trend Map by Deutsche Bank Research This trend map currently covers 21 trends which will have a major influence on the global economy in the next two decades. The map shows the condensed outcome of an iterative, broad-based search and evaluation process.  
UK in the first decade of the 00's Peace and Plenty: The Defining Feature of the UK in the First Decade of the '00s: Jim Murphy of Model Reasoning, Spring 2000  
World Future Society    


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Status: 19. September 2013