The traditional approach to strategy requires precise
predictions and thus often leads executives to
underestimate uncertainty. This can be downright
dangerous. A four-level framework can help.
Underestimating uncertainty can lead to strategies that
neither defend a company against the threats nor take
advantage of the opportunities that higher levels of
uncertainty provide. Another danger lies at the other
extreme: if managers can’t find a strategy that works
under traditional analysis, they may abandon the
analytical rigor of their planning process altogether
and base their decisions on gut instinct.
What follows is a framework for determining the level of
uncertainty surrounding strategic decisions and for
tailoring strategy to that uncertainty. pdf
