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A
Natural History of Markets |
Economics professor John McMillan explores markets ranging from
ancient bazaars to eBay and explains what makes or breaks a
marketplace |
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A
Proposal to Eliminate Sales and Use Taxes |
Hal R. Varian proposes eliminating all state and local sales taxes
and replacing them with a revenue-equivalent state income or
consumption tax |
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Asia economic and currency crisis |
Readings and links, by Nouriel Roubini, Stern School of Business |
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Asia economic crisis |
Getting Caught: Identity Builders and the Asian Economic Crisis- by
Dave McCaughan, Summer 1998 |
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Bank Capital Regulation |
... In contemporary banking theory: a review of the literature |
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Bargaining |
Economic theories of bargaining, game-theoretic models. Short
article |
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Business Cycle Indicators |
Lecture notes by Nouriel Roubini and David Backus |
TOP |
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Business Cycles in History |
This paper is an introduction to modern economic history for
historians and economists. Accordingly this paper has to two
objectives: Firstly, it presents economic theory explaining business
cycles to historians. Secondly, for economists it illustrates both
the possibilities and problems to detect and understand business
cycles in the past. pdf-file 2002 |
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Can
Inflation Targeting Regimes be Effective in Emerging Economies?:
The Turkish Experience |
In 2002 the the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) shifted to an implicit
inflation targeting framework (IIT), which encompassed core
attributes of an IT regime. Succesful disinflation and progress in
the policy environment led to the introduction of full-fledged IT in
2006, which brought further transparency to the monetary policy
framework. We found Turkey’s new monetary approach to be an
effective framework with more progress to come. doc-file. 2006 |
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Capital Market Liberalization |
Size Matters: The Impact of Capital Market Liberalization on
Individual Firms. Pdf-file 2002 |
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Clusters of Innovation - U.S. National Report |
This report distills lessons from five regional economies and 15
clusters around the United States and explains how clusters enhance
productivity and spur innovation. Pdf-file 4489 KB |
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Collective Bargaing: Unity is Strength |
Unity is Strength: An Experimental Study of Decentralized and
Collective Bargaining. Pdf-file |
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Comparing monetary policy operating procedures across the United
States, Japan and the euro area |
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Competition and Financial Stability |
Competition policy in the banking sector is complicated by the
necessity of maintaining financial stability. Greater competition
may be good for (static) efficiency, but bad for financial
stability. From the point of view of welfare economics, the relevant
question is: What are the efficient levels of competition and
financial stability? pdf-file. 2003 |
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Contradictions Coming Home to Roost? |
Income Distribution and the Return of the Aggregate Demand Problem |
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Cooperative Commonwealth |
What is the meaning of "Cooperative Commonwealth?" |
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Country-Specific and Global Shocks in the Business Cycle |
Industrial production in G7 countries is assumed to be driven by two
exogenous disturbances. Those disturbances are identified in a VAR
model so they can be interpreted as country-specific and global
supply shocks. Pdf-file |
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Creative Deconstruction and Globalization |
Innovations that stimulate general economic growth simultaneously
destroy specific jobs as emerging technologies replace older
technologies. Creative destruction has gotten more attention
recently because it is a major component of globalization, and many
prominent job losses have been attributed to import competition.
pdf-file 70 KB. 2003 |
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Deflation |
Why Deflation is Different. The effects of deflation on an economy
do not simply mirror the effects of inflation—a low and stable
deflation rate can have a greater adverse impact than an identically
low and stable inflation rate. |
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Determinants of product differentiation |
The purpose of this work is to examine the impact of the market
structure on price competition and equilibrium differentiation.
Pdf-file |
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Do
Forecasters use Monetary Models? |
Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when
forecasting exchange rates? The paper examines this question |
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Does Europe have a Single Market ten years on? |
The underlying microeconomic foundations in Europe are fundamentally
different. February 2003 |
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Does Monetary Policy Have a Future? |
Pdf-file. Fall 2001 |
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Duopoly Markets |
Simultaneous and Sequential Price Competition on Heterogeneous
Duopoly Markets: Experimental Evidence. Discussion Paper. Pdf-file
2002 |
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Ecological Tax Reform and Unemployment |
This paper examines potential economic dividends from
revenue-neutral ecological tax reforms by systematically
distinguishing between an efficiency dividend and an employment
dividend. Pdf-file 93 KB July 2002 |
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Economic and Social Aspects of Productivity |
What is missing from standard analyses of productivity and how
should one incorporate social concerns in an analysis of
productivity. Pdf-file |
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Economic Indicators explained |
Explains key economic indicators by definition, source, frequency,
availability and reason |
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Economic inequality and economic growth |
The paper enquires into the relationship between economic inequality
and economic growth, but different from others, it also studies the
relationship between inequality and economic growth in the situation
where consideration of effect of factor movement is included.
pdf-file |
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Economic Value, the Value of Economists, and the Meaning of Life |
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Economics and the Ordinary Person: Re-reading Adam Smith |
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Electronic Trading |
The implications of electronic trading in financial markets |
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Equity, Savings, and Growth |
In this paper, we develop a model of the micro-economic behavior of
poor households that accounts for the episodes of equitable,
poverty-reducing growth from low initial income levels in East Asia
and for selected periods in other settings. |
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Exchange Rate Regimes... |
... Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention. Pdf-file |
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Explaining the Increased Variability in Long-Term Interest Rates |
The variability of changes in long-term interest rates increased
dramatically in the 1980s and 1990s. Can such increased variability
be accounted for by changes in the behavior of short-term interest
rates? While changes in short-term interest rates have become less
variable, they have become more persistent. |
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Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks |
This paper examines the optimal production, export allocation and
hedging decisions of a risk-averse international firm that exports
to several foreign markets with different currencies. |
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Financial Institutions in Transition Economies |
Building Financial Institutions in Developing and Transition
Economies. Pdf-File |
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Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes |
This paper evaluates (1) whether the exogenous component of
financial intermediary development influences economic growth and
(2) whether cross-country differences in legal and accounting
systems explain differences in the level of financial development. |
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Forecast-based monetary policy |
This article analyses the welfare consequences of delegating to the
central bank the task of minimizing deviations of forecasts of goal
variables from their target values. |
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Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors |
Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid
exposure to foreign currency risk. This paper argues that
conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Pdf-file
2002 |
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Free Trade, Business Strategy and Globalisation |
This paper links the economist's analysis of free trade with the
business strategist's analysis of the forces behind the
globalization of competition. Pdf-file |
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Game theory |
Articles by. David K. Levine |
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Game theory as a part of empirical economics |
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Game Theory as a Tool for Market Design |
pdf-file |
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Game theory II |
on-line bibliography with over 2000 references to published and
working papers in economic and game theory |
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Global Order and the Future of the Euro |
The performance of the euro can be assessed in relation to recent
developments in the global economy as well as in relation to the
vision of the architects of the European Monetary Union. Pdf-file 38
KB. 2004 |
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Global Price of Foreign Exchange Risk |
pdf-file 2003 |
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Globalisation, labour standards and economic development |
In recent years a few advanced countries have been advocating
multilateral rules permitting punitive trade measures to be taken
against countries not upholding core labour standards. Pdf-file 2003 |
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Globalization and Redistribution |
Feasible Egalitarianism in a Competitive World |
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Globalization and the Middle Class |
Stuck In The Tunnel: Is Globalization Muddling The Middle Class? |
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Going Global - The Importance of Free Trade |
Current protests against integration of the world's economies risks
destroying the progress of the past few years. The importance of
globalization is often misunderstood, and extremely important.
(September 2000) |
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Implications of ageing populations |
The macroeconomic and financial implications of ageing populations.
Paper from 1998, nevertheless, still relevant |
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Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule |
The paper provides a conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules,
attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of inflation
targeting, compares inflation targeting to the other monetary policy
rules, and draws conclusions for the monetary policy of the European
system of Central Banks; Abstract, pdf download version available |
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IPI
Economic Scorecards |
The paper provides a conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules,
attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of inflation
targeting, compares inflation targeting to the other monetary policy
rules, and draws conclusions for the monetary policy of the European
system of Central Banks; Abstract, pdf download version available |
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IPI
Insights |
The paper provides a conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules,
attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of inflation
targeting, compares inflation targeting to the other monetary policy
rules, and draws conclusions for the monetary policy of the European
system of Central Banks; Abstract, pdf download version available |
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IPI
Policy Reports |
The paper provides a conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules,
attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of inflation
targeting, compares inflation targeting to the other monetary policy
rules, and draws conclusions for the monetary policy of the European
system of Central Banks; Abstract, pdf download version available |
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Jokes about economists and economics |
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TOP |
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Keynes' General Theory of Interest: A Reconsideration |
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Last-Minute Bidding in Auctions |
Last Minute Bidding and the Rules for Ending Second-Price Auctions:
Theory and Evidence from a Natural Experiment on the Internet. This
paper studies the design of the end of the auction, by comparing
eBay and Amazon auctions. Pdf-file |
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Let's Get "Real" about Using Economic Data |
We show that using data which are properly available in real time
when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news
leads to different empirical findings than when data availability
and timing issues are ignored. Pdf-file |
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Low
Inflation: The Behavior of Financial Markets and Institutions |
This paper provides a broad overview of the potential impact of low
inflation (deflation) on US financial markets and institutions.
Pdf-file |
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Macroeconomic Implications of Low Inflation in the Euro Area |
The authors show that aggregate demand in the euro area countries is
significantly affected by the euro area real interest rate, but not
by national real interest rate differentials. Pdf-file 2003 |
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Market structure, Intermediation and Liquidity |
Pdf-file |
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Marketmaking in the Laboratory |
Does competition matter? This paper is the first experimental study
of the effects of competition and adverse selection on the
performance of market maker markets. Pdf-file |
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Marxist Economics |
An introduction: The Labor Theory of Value, Surplus-Value,
Twentieth-Century Developments |
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Measures of excess liquidity |
The aim of this note is to provide an overview of various measures
of “excess liquidity”, which can be defined as the deviation of the
actual stock of money from an estimated equilibrium level. Pdf-file
204 KB. 2005 |
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Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: |
Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange. Pdf-file 2003 |
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Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal
Control Systems |
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Money and inflation in the Euro Area |
A case for monetary indicators? This paper studies the relationship
between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro
area, using data spanning 1980-2000. |
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Neglecting Disaster: Why Don't People Insure Against Large Losses? |
This paper provides a theoretical explanation for the common
observation that people often fail to purchase insurance against
low-probability high-loss events even when it is offered at
favorable premiums. We hypothesize that individuals maximize
expected utility but face an explicit or implicit cost to
discovering the true probability of rare events. pdf-file 2003 |
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OECD - Documents |
Free working papers and documents on economics |
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Oil
Prices and Consumer Spending |
Richmond Fed Economist Yash P. Mehra and Research Associate Jon D.
Petersen present evidence of a nonlinear relation between oil price
changes and consumer spending. pdf |
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On
the "Burden" of German Unification |
The Economic Consequences of Messrs. Waigel and Tietmeyer |
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Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia |
This paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of
central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to
changes in economic conditions. Abstract, pdf download version
available |
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Porters Diamond |
Summary of the concept |
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Power Inside the Firm and the Market: A General Equilibrium Approach |
Recent years have witnessed an enormous amount of reorganization of
the corporate sector in the US and in Europe. This paper examines
the role of market competition for this trend in corporate
reorganization. Pdf-file 2002 |
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Powerful Regions in Future Europe |
When Dreams Come True: The Role of Powerful Regions in Future
Europe. Pdf-file 2003 |
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Predicting Recessions with Interest Rate Spreads: |
This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the
informational content of the term structure as a predictor of
recessions in eight OECD countries. Abstract, pdf download version
available |
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Prisoner's Dilemma |
Compensating the Cooperators: Is Sorting in the Prisoner's Dilemma
Possible? Discussion Paper. Doc-file. 2000 |
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Prosperity is a Nation's Choice |
Michael Fairbanks offers seven guidelines for increasing national
productivity in The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, and explains
that the first step for developing economies is to develop new
attitudes toward competition and risk. |
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Ricardo's Problem of an Invariable Measure of Value |
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Shaken and Stirred: Explaining Growth Volatility |
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Social Status and Risk-Taking in a Model of Occupational Choice |
This paper is concerned with occupational choice under risk, where
agents care about their social status. It is motivated by recent
developments in the 'New Economy', which indicate that status
preferences possibly provide an explanation for the observed shift
towards entrepreneurial risk-taking. pdf-file 224 KB May 2002 |
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Status Preference, Wealth, and Dynamics in the Open Economy |
The implications of status preference in a simple open economy model
will be investigated in this paper. Pdf-file |
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Sticky Prices, Marginal Cost, and the Behavior of Inflation |
Discusses models with sticky prices and monopolistic competition,
cyclical behavior of real marginal cost, and cyclical behavior of
inflation; pdf file |
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Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability |
We develop a simple approach to valuing stocks in the presence of
learning about average profitability. The market-to-book ratio (M/B)
increases with uncertainty about average profitability, especially
for firms that pay no dividends. Pdf-file 2002 |
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Strategic Analysis |
Prospects and Policies for the U.S. Economy: A Strategic View |
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Strategic Asset Allocation in a Continuous-Time VAR Model |
pdf-file 2002 |
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Strong Dollar, Weak Dollar |
Foreign exchange rates and the U.S. economy. Pdf-file |
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Sustainable Development A Dubious Solution in Search of a Problem |
The concept seems innocuous enough. After all, who would favor
"unsustainable development"? August 2002 |
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Technolgical Leadership |
Why is it important for a multinational corporation to hold
technological leadership? A technological transfer perspective.
Pdf-File 214 KB |
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The
Argentine Debt Crisis of 2001-2002 |
A Chronology and Some Key Policy Issues. Pdf-file Janauary 2002 |
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The
Causes of Euro Instability |
March 2001 |
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The
Competitive Advantage of Nations |
By Michael E. Porter. Now, at time when economic performance rather
than military might will be the index of national strength, Porter
builds on the seminal ideas of his earlier works to explore what
makes a nation's firms and industries competitive in global markets
and propels a whole nation's economy. |
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The
Costs of Inflation and Disinflation |
This paper assesses the available evidence on the costs of inflation
and disinflation |
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The
Demand and Supply for Household Debt |
A Cross Country Comparison. Pdf-file 2003 |
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The
Economic Role of the State in the 21st Century |
The last half-century has witnessed major developments in the
economies of the industrial countries and in the role that the
governments of these countries have played especially through the
instrument of public spending. This article describes some of these
developments and focuses on the role that the governments of these
countries should play in the future. pdf-file 2005 |
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The
Effects of Foreign Owned Firms on the Labor Market |
Cross sectional evidence shows that foreign firms have a more
educated workforce and pay higher wages than domestic firms.
Pdf-file. May 2003 |
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The
efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises |
Analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency
crises, indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that
are reviewed in this work, critique of systems of early warning
indicators currently used by international institutions |
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The
Euro and International Capital Markets |
This paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major
currencies’ roles in international capital markets, with a special
emphasis on the first year of the euro. Abstract, pdf download
version available |
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The
Myth of a Strong Dollar Policy |
The Cato Journal examines the dilemma that the Fed faces when it
attempts to achieve two policy goals—an exchange rate objective and
an inflation target—with monetary policy alone. Pdf-file 83 KB. 2003 |
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The
Optimal Income Tax: Restatement and Extensions |
The paper presents an axiomatic restatement of the standard approach
to nonlinear income taxation. It assumes a finite number of
taxpayers rather than an uncountable infinity. Analytical tools are
developed which facilitate proving the existence of tax schedules
that are continuous, differentiable almost everywhere and possess
left- and right-derivatives at every point of
non-differentiability. pdf-file 973 KB May 2002 |
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The
Quest for Growth |
How we wandered the tropics trying to figure out how to make poor
countries rich. by William Easterly |
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The
Stability and Growth Pact: |
Its Role and Future. Pdf-file 90 KB. 2004 |
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The
Threat to Economic Liberty from International Organizations |
It is one of the abiding ironies at the beginning of the new
millennium that various international organizations set up after the
Second World War to create a new Liberal International Economic
Order (LIEO) are now the major purveyors of global illiberalism. How
has this come to pass? Is there any need for these international
organizations? These are the questions I address in this article.
pdf-file 2005 |
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The
Welfare Evaluation of Primary Goods: A Suggestion |
This paper presents a characterization of a welfare index for the
evaluation of primary goods (to be understood as those goods that
all agents should enjoy equally). Pdf-file |
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Trade Flows and the International Business Cycle |
The authors investigate into the role of the trade channel as
important determinant of a country's current account position and
the degree of business cycle synchronization with the rest of the
world by comparing the predictions of two types of DGE models.
pdf-file |
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Transparency in Monetary Policy |
Transparency is now regarded as a necessary part of "good
governance" demanded of all economic policy makers. This paper
focuses on transparency in monetary policy, in particular with
respect to the European System of Central Banks; Abstract, pdf
download version available |
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Turbulent Firms, Turbulent Wages? |
Has greater turbulence among firms fueled rising wage instability in
the United States? Research paper. 2006. Abstract, pdf-file
available for download |
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US
Stock Prices and Macroeconomic Fundamentals |
This paper analyses the extent to which US stock prices deviate from
economy-wide fundamentals. Doc-file |
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Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Economies |
This paper describes some experiments with the construction of
relatively simple indices which summarizes in a systematic and
objective way information about emerging economies currently under
pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure
in the future. |
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Walras Law and Macroeconomics |
The relevance of Walras Law for macroeconomic (and especially
unemployment) theory. An intuitive (and a formal) proof of Walras
Law. Walras Law and disequilibrium states. Walras versus Keynes:
Notional c.f. Effective Demands. |
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Wealth of Nations |
Online-version of the book by Adam Smith |
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What Makes Regions in Eastern Europe Catching Up? |
The Role of Foreign Investment, Human Resources, and Geography. Pdf-file
2003 |
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Who
Are the Chronic Poor? |
Evidence on the Extent and the Composition of Chronic Poverty in
Germany. Pdf-file. May 2003 |
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Why
long term interest rates (almost) always slope downwards |
The paper documents a persistent and thus far largely overlooked
empirical regularity in the yield curve: the tendency for the term
structure of long term forward rates to slope downwards. Pdf-file |
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World Economic Forum |
Records and publications section |
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